2020 MOC 106
Since this is the weight bracket I know the best, I figured I'd give my seeds, reasoning expected outcomes. If there is a different seeding criteria, most of this will be rubbage. Ive seen wrestlers with much better win/loss records seeded lower based on their division.
Top 4 in order
1. Wagner (D1) Concord
2. O'Rourke (D1) Salem
3. Fernandez (D2) BG
4. Ritondo (D3) Newport
Reasoning: O'Rourke is the only non state champ listed. Wagner won MOC 2 years ago at 106. Placed 4th at 113 in Lowell Holidays. O'Rourke has close decision win over Fernandez in Lowell. Fernandez stays at three with a win over Ritondo in the Hollis Noreaseter. Im going with the notion that they will seed the state champs from each division. I could see/make a case to have a third D1 in the top 4 if they went that route.
Seedings for the rest (I tried my best to take into account the eye test with results as well.
5.) Williams (D1) Windham
6.) Fabrizio (D1) Timberlane
7.) Oliver (D1) Nashua North
8.) Wray (D3) Bow
9.) Dan Gendron (D2) Goffstown
10.) Salemi (D1) Nashua South
11.) Ciotti (D3) Plymouth
12.) Crea (D2) Hollis Brookline
13.) Mitchell (D3) Winnisquam
14.) Maglio (D2) Merrimack
For seeds 5-14, I reviewed dual meets and tournaments to get an idea for placement. Based on these seeds, I expect the following matchups.
First Round: If things hold up, we should have two rematches. Wray v Gendron. Wray earned a 3rd period pin in the first matchup. Oliver vs Salemi Nashua N vs Nashua S. Battle of the Bridge. Oliver won a 5-3 decision at divisionals.
Ritondo vs Williams. Ritondo has done well this season but hasnt faced many of the top seeds. Williams had a strong 3rd place finish at D1s. Williams with a decision.
O'Rourke vs Fabrizio: Recruitment scandal? Just kidding. Salem vs Timberlane. Nothing else needs to be said.
Oliver vs Fernandez: Fernandez is 3-0 this season against Oliver. 2 went the distance. Fernandez has done well this season capturing the d2 crown.
Wagner vs Wray: Tough matchup for Wray in this one. Wagner won 2018 MOCs at 106.
Wagner vs Williams: Did I mention Wagner won MOCs in 2018 at 106? (I know I did a few times). Williams has the tools but Wagner is also a senior.
O'Rourke vs Fernandez: This is a rematch from earlier in the season. O'Rourke won 4-1 in Lowell with a late reversal for the final margin. Points were scored late in each of the rounds. I think O'Rourke gets this one too but would love to see Fernandez have a crack at Wagner too.
Wagner vs O'rourke for the title. Wagner won D1s over O'Rourke with a pin in round 1. Im sure a little strategy session will extend this match more this time around.
Looks like I nailed the top 4 in order. Wagner and O'Rourke will be receiving byes first round. There was some seeding changes I didnt expect but the criteria could be different. (Higher placement for a D2 finishing 2nd vs a D1 finishing 5th in Divisionals even if head to head is considered))
6.) Williams (though he won head to head over Fabrizio)
7.) Nick Wray
8.) Matt Oliver (though he won via pin first round over Wray
9.) Hunter Crea
10.) Ryan Salemi
11.) Anthony Maglio
12.) Dan Gendron
13.) Mike Baker
14.) Gianni Ciotti
Still have a rematch as Wray and Salemi will meet up again since their matchup at the Nashua Hall of Fame tournament. Wray got the best of Salemi in that one but Salemi was up 5-0 before round 2....
Fernandez v Ciotti is another rematch. Fernandez won by pin and will likely do the same this time around.
Fabrizio v Gendron. Fabrizio won a 13-7 decision at the Timberlane invitational. Did home field advantage play a part? what happens on a neutral site?
Quarterfinals: two most interesting matches (assuming higher seeds win).
Fernandez vs Williams: Fernandez won a tight decision over Williams in a dual. It will be a battle but I think Fernandez wins
Ritondo v Fabrizio: Ritondo has only faced one of top 7 and that was to Fernandez. Timberlane always wrestles tough.
Wagner vs (anyone), Its tough to go with anyone else.
Fernandez v Orourke. The rematch. This will be a fun one to watch for sure. Both technical wrestlers. Both can get their takedowns and can ride well enough.
Wagner vs Orourke/Fernandez. Wagner beat Orourke in Divisionals with a first period pin. Fernandez hasnt wrestled Wagner this year I believe this winter. (maybe off season).
This is my expectation of placement;
6.) Ritondo or Maybe Oliver
As you can see, the higher seeds look like the finish in order. If anything you can possibly flip flop Orourke and Fernadez.